The Spillover Effects of Gulf Conflict on Global Food Production: A Sustainability Analysis of Fertilizer Supply Chain Disruptions
Mohamed Buheji1*
Abstract
The ongoing conflict of the US-Israel war with Iran and the resulting disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz represent a critical threat to global food production systems. While much attention has focused on energy markets, the strategic importance of the Gulf region as a global hub for fertilizer production—accounting for nearly one-third of key agricultural inputs—creates a transmission mechanism through which regional instability can cascade into worldwide food shortages.
This paper examines the spillover effects on global agriculture, analysing the immediate disruptions to fertilizer supply chains, the medium-term impacts on crop yields and planting decisions, and the differentiated vulnerabilities across importing regions. Drawing on data from international organizations and expert analysis, the paper quantifies the potential human cost, including projections that nearly 45 million additional people could face acute food insecurity if the conflict persists (UN, 2026). The analysis concludes by considering the structural vulnerabilities exposed by the crisis and implications for global food system resilience.
This paper contributes to the growing literature on food system resilience by demonstrating how geographically concentrated input production creates systemic vulnerability in global food supply chains. The analysis reveals that the Gulf’s dual role as both fertilizer exporter and food importer creates a ‘sustainability trap’—where regional instability simultaneously threatens global food production and local food security. We conclude by proposing a multi-level governance framework for enhancing food system resilience through supply chain diversification, strategic reserve coordination, and climate-smart agricultural transitions.
Keywords:
Food System Resilience; Fertilizer Supply Chains; Strait of Hormuz; US-Israel-Iran War, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC); Global Food Security; Supply Chain Disruption; Virtual Water Trade; Climate-Smart Agriculture
