V2I6P11

Environmental and Economic Forecasting of Biomass Depletion and Carbon Release in Kazimzumbwi Forest Reserve, Tanzania

Luzabeth J. Kitali^1*

Abstract

Forests play a crucial role in the global climate system, acting as significant carbon sinks that absorb approximately 2.6 billion tonnes of carbon annually. However, anthropogenic pressures such as deforestation, illegal logging, and urban expansion are threatening this function, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Tanzania, with over 33 million hectares of forest at risk, exemplifies this crisis, particularly in the Kazimzumbwi Forest Reserve (KFR), which is experiencing accelerated biomass depletion and land-use conversion due to weak law enforcement and limited community engagement. This study adopts a multi-disciplinary approach to assess the environmental and economic impacts of biomass depletion and carbon release in KFR from 2024 to 2054. Utilizing land use and land cover change (LULCC) analysis, carbon stock modeling, and market-based carbon valuation, the study employs satellite imagery and national forest inventory data to simulate future land cover transitions using the CA-Markov model. The findings indicate a net biomass gain of 19,534.11 tonnes, primarily from passive regrowth in shrubland and bare land. However, significant degradation in open woodlands and grasslands results in a loss of over 9,977.4 tonnes of biomass. By 2054, the total carbon stock is projected at 9,181.03 tonnes, translating to approximately 33,694.39 tonnes of CO₂, with closed forests remaining the primary carbon sink. The economic valuation of carbon loss, based on a conservative market price of USD $4 per tonne, estimates a cumulative financial loss of USD $134,777.58, with the most significant losses occurring in open woodlands and grasslands. Conversely, closed forests represent a substantial ecological and economic asset, valued at nearly USD $199,389.31. The study emphasizes that forest degradation poses both environmental and economic risks, particularly as global carbon prices increase. To address these challenges, the study recommends strengthening forest governance, promoting community-based forest management, and leveraging carbon finance mechanisms. It advocates for the restoration of degraded lands through assisted natural regeneration and native species reforestation. By integrating environmental science, economics, and policy, this research provides strategic insights for sustainable land-use planning and climate action in Tanzania, positioning reserves like KFR as vital assets for a climate-resilient economy.

Keywords:

Biomass depletion, Carbon emissions, Land use change (LULC), Carbon valuation, Sustainable Forest management