V2I12P11

Climate Variability of Rainfall and Desertification in Musawa Lga, Katsina State, Nigeria

David Mkpanam Nyong^1*, Tagbo Sunday Onanalo², Segun Ezekiel Akorede³, Adaobi Thelma Onyemaobi⁴, Racheal Uzomah Agolo⁵

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between climate variability of rainfall and desertification in Musawa Local Government Area, Katsina State, Nigeria, from 2017 to 2024. Using CHIRPS rainfall data and Sentinel-2 NDVI imagery, pixel-wise trend and spatial correlation analyses were conducted on a 5 km grid. Results revealed a paradoxical pattern: annual rainfall increased steadily (mean slope: 0.01327 mm/year; peak 1,043 mm in 2024), yet vegetation declined across all locations (mean NDVI slope: -16.41), representing a 13.7% reduction in greenness. Correlation analysis showed a weak, non-significant relationship between rainfall and vegetation decline (Pearson’s r = -0.152, p = 0.382; Spearman’s ρ = -0.186, p = 0.285), with rainfall explaining only 2.3% of NDVI variance. The “Musawa Paradox” highlights increasing rainfall coinciding with declining vegetation, emphasizing the dominance of anthropogenic drivers over climate in desertification. Extreme rainfall seasonality, with 88.9% of precipitation concentrated in June–September, exacerbates soil erosion and limits vegetation recovery. The study concludes that land use intensification, agriculture, and soil degradation are primary drivers. It recommends climate-smart agriculture, soil conservation, and community-based land management as integrated strategies to mitigate desertification and enhance resilience to climate variability in Sudan-Sahelian regions.

Keywords:

Desertification, NDVI, Climate Variability, Rainfall trend Sahel, Remote Sensing, Musawa LGA